Bitcoin BTC tickers down $36,575 may next be a “sell” at
at least $110,000 as its new bull cycle plays out, a
classic on-chain indicator suggests.
Data from on-chain analytics platform Look Into Bitcoin
shows
Bitcoin’s “Terminal Price” hinting at a possible
six-figure top.
BTC price to six figures next cycle?
As BTC price action circles its highest levels in 18
months, forecasters are already considering how high it
could go in the coming months and even years.
After the next block subsidy halving in April 2024,
targets include $130,000, with late 2025 being a popular deadline for the next
cycle top.
Analyzing its Terminal Price, Look Into Bitcoin creator
Philip Swift described its value as a “simple” method of
estimating long-term BTC price peaks.
Terminal Price is calculated from Bitcoin’s so-called
“Transferred Price” — a value derived by dividing “Coin
Days Destroyed” (CDD) by the existing supply.
CDD is a popular metric that measures how many dormant
days are reset each time an amount of BTC moves on-chain.
It is useful as a gauge of hodler intent and activity.
Created by Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at data firm
Glassnode, Terminal Price comes into play at the top of
each BTC price cycle.
Not every all-time high reaches Terminal Price, but
BTC/USD did hit the trendline during its 2017 all-time and
initial peak in April 2021. The current all-time high of
$69,000, seen in November of that year, fell short.
Swift thus suggested that selling “near” Terminal Price
would be a suitable policy. Its bear market counterpart,
“Balanced Price,” likewise signals useful market bottoms.
As Terminal Price increases with time, $110,000 may ultimately end up a conservative target should the next all-time high occur only later in the next cycle.
Waiting on a Pi Cycle crossover
In further analysis this week, Swift also highlighted the “Pi Cycle Top” indicator as providing reliable long-term high estimates.
Pi uses two moving averages for its forecasts, with their
crossovers heralding the next high — albeit with just
days’ notice.
“The Pi Cycle Top indicator caught so many off-guard last
cycle, including myself, by perfectly identifying the
top...again! Will it identify the bitcoin top again this
cycle?” Swift queried.
